Jaime fails to rise to the occasion-again

 

No way to sugar coat the game. Bad Jaime was back. Giving up 5 runs in the first 2 innings. When your starter does that, it’s going to be a long night. The Cards are now 2-7 in the first game of a home stand on the season. That would be the reason the Cards are 6 games under .500 at home. Frustrating.

I had hoped for the last few years that Jamie would go on a good run coming up to the trade deadline and the Cardinals could move him. It has been my opinion that Mozeliak hates him like no other. Mozeliak coming out and criticizing Jaime when he shut himself down a few years back. GM’s just don’t do that.

However, Jaime is a left-hander with unhittable movement, when he’s on. The reality is the Cardinals are stuck with Jaime. The Cards will pick up Jaime option for 2017. Too much value to simple let walk away. The Cards will have to hope that Jaime can be traded at the deadline next season.

The reality is that Jaime needs to be on a non contending team. Making around $10MM per year on a 2 year deal. Think Twins/Braves. Jaime will have 13/14 wins at the end of the season. No stress. No worries. Not a Cardinal.  

The issue for this year, is if the Cardinals do snag one of the wild cards and make it past the wild card game. Can the Cards let Jaime pitch in the divisional round? Not if they want to win. Jaime doesn’t do big game pressure. That would mean Reyes will have to move to the starting rotation for the postseason. Weakening the bullpen.

That would mean the Cards are still in need of 3 or so arms to magically appear over the next 6 weeks for the bullpen. Could happen. Rosie, Soco, Tui, Kiek, Lynn, Walden, Mayers might step it up. Go on a run. Save the day. That is about the Cardinals only hope.

On paper this was an easy win for the Cards. Should have happened. It seems that the Cards just can’t get to the 10 game over .500 mark. Such is the story of the 2016 season.

Joel Sherman from the New York Post did a nice piece on the Cardinals overcoming adversity. Somehow finding a way to win: 

Yet, in some fashion, the Cardinal Way never has been more impressive. Their farm system is never hailed as among the best, and they have never gone into one of those prolonged losing periods to restock as have the Cubs or the Astros, run by former Cardinals executive Jeff Luhnow. Yet, solutions keep coming from below, even two years after the death of their top prospect, Oscar Taveras.

The organizational patience, discipline, constancy and culture are so often rewarded by the team finding what is necessary to win. The Cardinals are the model the Mets and really every club that craves sustainability should honor.

Here comes the but: They are Team MacGyver. So a player the Cardinals took off the 40-man roster last year, Diaz, rose to be an All-Star shortstop. A small offseason trade netted Jedd Gyorko, who leads the NL in second-half homers (13). A small signing of Seung-hwan Oh delivered a replacement for Rosenthal and one great nickname: Final Boss. Since June 1, Brandon Moss has been re-born with a 1.025 OPS and now leads the club with 23 homers. Stephen Piscotty has blossomed from a farm system that sent Luke Weaver to the rotation and fireballer Alex Reyes to the pen (seven shutout innings to open his career). And Cardinals pinch-hitters were at .356 with a franchise-record 14 homers.

Adams and Diaz are due back from the DL in early September, and Lynn, Holliday and a few others might yet make it back, as well. Despite being tied for the seventh-most DL stints, St. Louis was — as always — problem solving, winning.

The Cards are Team MacGyver.

Source: The Cardinals Way: tainted, battered and impossible to kill | New York Post

If you don’t follow the Cardinals all that closely that would be your conclusion. However, I see it a little differently. The problem solving comes from the front office. Mozeliak is doing a very good job. Matheny not so much.

If there has been one constant under the 4 1/2 years of Matheny, whatever the issue with the team in April and May remains the issue for the rest of the season. This year it is the inconsistent starting pitching. Last couple of years it was run scoring. No problem solving from the field staff during the year.

So don’t expect Matheny to do anything bold, to remedy the situation. Just like always. The players will just have to grind it out.

After saying all that. Sports on Earth latest playoff odds:

The second NL Wild Card chase

In the NL, the Odds see the Cubs, Nationals, Dodgers and Giants in excellent shape for the first four playoff positions. Here are the odds for that final one. (Here, the odds do not add up to 100 because of the possibility that Los Angeles or San Francisco drop out of the playoffs entirely):

St. Louis: 72.9 percent
Miami, 30.7 percent

N.Y. Mets, 13.2 percent
Pittsburgh, 11.6 percent
Colorado, 1.6 percent

If the season ended today …

According to the MLB standings

AL Wild Card Game: Baltimore at Boston
ALDS: Wild Card winner at Texas
Toronto at Cleveland

NL Wild Card Game: St. Louis at San Francisco
NLDS: Wild Card winner at Chicago Cubs
Los Angeles at Washington

According to the Playoff Odds Report

AL Wild Card Game: Seattle at Boston
ALDS: Wild Card winner at Texas
Toronto at Cleveland

NL Wild Card Game: St. Louis at San Francisco
NLDS: Wild Card winner at Chicago Cubs
Los Angeles at Washington

You can track how the playoff odds have fluctuated all season right here. We’ll be back again in a month to see where we stand then, for the final time.

CarMart will have to win today against deGrom. Good luck with that.

The Cards are 1.5 games in front of the Fish for the second wild card.

Only 1.5 games behind the Giants for the first wild card.

Go Cards.

Later. 

  

 

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